Prospects of a Scarier New World Order
Posted on November 23, 2016
A lot of lefties think destroying NATO and SEATO is OK. I think there are possibilities far worse than American neoimperialism. For one, I’d expect to see a world-dominating neoimperialism based on an alliance of the authoritarian capitalisms of China, Russia, Turkey, and maybe the Philippines. I’d look for Iran and Pakistan to line up as well, with Indonesia to follow if its fragile democracy fails. With Trump in charge, maybe we’d stop defending South Korea and tell them to build their own nukes. Japan would have to go nuclear as well.
A lot of pro-Israel chauvinists think abrogating the Iran treaty would be a good idea, followed either by a nuclear Iran or a US-Iran war of regime change. Saudi Arabia would gladly offer forward bases.
I can’t imagine who the idiots are who agree with Trump that we should give up on both nuclear disarmament and the balance of terror doctrine, but they are out there. Nuclear winter anyone?
Under Trump, Syria’s regime with Russian and probably Turkish help will in all probability beat back the rebels, perpetrate a blood bath, wipe out Rojava, and then wipe out ISIS in Syria. In Iraq, the civil war will probably flair up again with somewhat different alliances, depending whether the US stays or goes. If we leave Iraq, the Shiite-Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance will crush the Iraqi Sunnis (despite their heavy Saudi aid) and then start against the Iraqi Kurds.
Once the US is forced out of the Middle East, Israel will likely fall. The left-wing minority in Israel do not deserve their likely fate.
Europe will hold on to a declining NATO and EU for a while. Maybe shock and fear will lead Europe to make the political and fiscal reforms they have long needed in order to stay together (which amounts to little more than basic representative democracy). More likely they will gradually splinter.
Given the decisive world-wide turn against democratic institutions, expect some new coups in Latin America, and especially in Africa.
Hello brave new world order. Goodbye action on climate change.
If there is hope, it rests in holding out until things change in the 2018 and 2020 elections.